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 AT
THE MOVIES-Once
again it’s Academy Award time and we are once again weighing in with our
predictions. As of this writing (021708) Bo has sent in his picks and those are
what's posted below. |
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There
Ruby Dee for American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan for Atonement
Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
I didn’t see Atonement or I’m Not There so I can’t comment on them. I would bet
that the young Roman isn’t going to win here though. Dee was her usual self in
Gangster but I don’t see a reason for her being here with the rest. Swinton is
great in Clayton because we can see her moving towards the edges and wonder at
her surprise when she does what she does in the film. Amy Ryan is perfect in
Gone as the party mom who suffers at the consequences of her actions and in the
end still has no idea why she is such a horrible person. We do see the pain in
her performance and since the Ben Affleck directed film was more or less ignored
by the Academy I am picking her but would bet that Blanchett wins for playing
one of the many versions of Bob Dylan in There.
WINNER: Amy Ryan (if I had a vote). |
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SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck for The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem for
No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook for
Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton.
The only performance I haven’t seen in this category is Affleck and that wasn’t
due to a lack of trying. Hoffman, Wilkinson and Holbrook are excellent in their
roles but this is Bardem’s by a long shot. His character is considered a
supporting role because Tommy Lee Jones is that main character in Men. From the
unusual hair choice to the flat way he speaks Bardem is riveting every time he
is on the screen.
WINNER: Javier Bardem |
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ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie for Away from Her
Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney for The Savages
Ellen Page for Juno.
My problem with this category is that I haven’t seen any of the performances so
I am just guessing here. All of the nominees are in independent films. Cotillard
is new here so she isn’t likely to beat out even the young Page. Blanchett’s
performance and film were considered nothing special by many so it’s between
Christie, Linney and Page. Page is young and Juno is making a strong showing at
both the box office and at other awards shows but I think the golden statue is
going to Christie for Away From Her. She has acted for a long time and the Sarah
Polley directed film has been well reviewed even though few have seen it.
WINNER: Julie Christie |
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ACTOR:
George Clooney for Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp for
Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises
I haven’t seen Depp in Sweeney and have no interest since I have never been a
fan of musicals. I have seen the other performances and man, they are all great
ones. Jones, Mortensen and Clooney all deserve accolades but Lewis’ performance
as Daniel Plainview is one of the greatest ones I have seen. He is in damn near
every scene and keeps your attention with his choice of voice (as Roger Ebert
said he is doing director John Huston’s voice) and the moments in the film where
he says absolutely nothing. Day-Lewis’ career has been take a role every few
years and then chill waiting for something to come along. It seems to work well
for him.
WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis. |
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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Diablo Cody for Juno
Nancy Oliver for Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton
Brad Bird for
Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins for The Savages
There is nothing harder than looking at a blank screen and figuring out how to
fill in the spaces. We can toss out three of the nominees right away: Oliver
(the film is too quirky), Bird (it’s an animated film) and Jenkins (too few have
seen the film and the performances were mentioned more that the script). That
leaves local girl (and ex-stripper Cody) and Gilroy (a Hollywood veteran). I
think Cody will win here but if Gilroy does I won’t be unhappy. Juno’s reviews
all make a point of talking about the dialogue and one of the hardest things to
write is dialogue.
WINNER: Diablo Cody. |
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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Christopher Hampton for Atonement
Sarah Polley for Away from Her
Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen for
No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood
This could be where the academy throws Atonement a bone and gives the Oscar to
Hampton but I don’t think that’s going to happen. This is Polley’s first
nomination so she isn’t getting it and Harwood doesn’t stand a chance either.
Anderson has a shot but I haven’t read Upton Sinclair’s Oil so I don’t know how
literal an adaptation he did. I don’t think that Sinclair wrote “I drink your
milkshake” though so I bet Anderson took a few liberties. I have read no Country
and it is a straight adaptation of the book. Cormac McCarthy’s novels are sparse
at times with little exposition and limited dialogue so the Coen’s were left
with a good foundation but at times little material.
WINNER: Ethan & Joel Coen (expect to see them on stage a lot) |
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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up.
The category is slim this year and no, I have no idea why Surf was nominated.
Persepolis isn’t animated in the same way that Ratatouille is and happens to be
the more serious of the two but you can’t really bet against animated rats so I
pick Ratatouille.
WINNER: Ratatouille. |
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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance.
It is entirely possible that Michael Moore will take home another Oscar for
Sicko but I think the winner will be No End In Sight. The war is a major factor
in most of the nominees and with No End getting the most attention it will take
home the statue.
WINNER: No End In Sight. |
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CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood.
There is nothing better than a well shot film. The performances can suck, the
dialogue can be lame, the costumes could look like something out of the Goodwill
store but if a film is shot wrong then you spend a lot of time looking at your
watch instead of the screen. As will be the case for most of the night the race
will be between No Country and Blood. In this case the winner should be Blood
hands down. Some scenes look like they were shot in natural light and others
just make you absorb the entirety of what’s on the screen.
WINNER: There Will Be Blood. |
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VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Golden Compass
Transformers
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
The three films all had to make good use of the FX departments but since
Transformers had to mesh effects with actors more than the other films it should
win the prize. That said, the effects in Pirates are damn good.
WINNER: Transformers |
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DIRECTOR:
Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Jason Reitman for Juno
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen for
No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood.
Since the Director’s Guild has already given their award to the Coen Brothers it
is a lock that the Academy will follow suit since there have seldom been
deviations between the two. The directors pick the winners and so they don’t
disagree with themselves. This Oscar is deserved but I wouldn’t be disappointed
if PT Anderson won for Blood.
WINNER: Ethan & Joel Coen |
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PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood.
First off I haven’t seen Atonement (and do not intend to, either since I have
gotten bored with English romance films) and have considered seeing Juno. I have
seen the other nominees and have enjoyed all of them. Michael Clayton is back in
theaters after hanging around for a little while but not making a lot of cash
and could win due to the fact that it is a Hollywood film. Blood is very dark
and has a masterful performance by Daniel Day-Lewis to push it but isn’t as much
of a full meal as No Country is. No Country is filled to the brim with wonderful
performances and I have thought more about it after seeing it than Blood so for
me it’s an easy choice.
WINNER: No Country for Old Men. |
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OSCAR ©
Copyright 2008 Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. No
right given or implied by Alternate Reality, Incorporated.
Article © 2008 Alternate Reality, Inc. |
